What to look for from the Clippers roster, starting with Kawhi Leonard and James Harden

Most of the focus surrounding the LA Clippers this offseason has been on the players they’ve lost.

Paul George left the Clippers after five seasons and is now with the Philadelphia 76ers. Russell Westbrook, despite picking up his player option, was traded to the Utah Jazz before signing with the Denver Nuggets.

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That leaves the Clippers with a lot of minutes and touches to fill. George averaged 33.8 minutes per game last season and Westbrook averaged 22.5 minutes per game. George was second on the team in touches per game (56.8) behind James Harden (75.6) while Westbrook trailed Kawhi Leonard (53.7) for the fourth-most touches on the team with 44.7. Per Synergy, 41.5 percent of George’s possessions were in on-ball feature play types (pick-and-roll ballhandler, isolations and post-ups). Westbrook’s on-ball feature play type percentage was 32.9.

How will the Clippers address these gaps moving forward? Let’s start by taking a look at the likely roster to begin the season.

How will the Clippers divide minutes?

There are 240 minutes that need to be accounted for by at least five players per team. Adding the average minutes per game of the top nine players who played more than 700 minutes for the Clippers last season comes out to 240.5:

• Leonard (34.3)
• Harden (34.3)
• George (33.8)
• Ivica Zubac (26.4)
• Norman Powell (26.2)
• Terance Mann (25.0)
• Westbrook (22.5)
• Amir Coffey (20.9)
• Daniel Theis (17.1)

Clippers coach Tyronn Lue has long preferred nine-man rotations where he can stagger stars, rarely going with all-bench lineups that feature five members of a second unit. In addition to George and Westbrook, Theis also departed in free agency, along with backup center Mason Plumlee. That leaves six rotation players from last season who are still on the roster: Leonard, Harden, Zubac, Powell, Mann and Coffey.

Last season’s primary starting lineup of Harden, Mann, George, Leonard and Zubac played 593 minutes (an average of 14.5 minutes per game) and outscored foes by 120 points. The most-used five-man lineup the Clippers put together made up solely of players still on the team was Harden, Mann, Powell, Leonard and Zubac, a unit that was outscored by six points in 63 minutes.

The only five-man lineup the Clippers had last season that played more than 20 minutes while outscoring opponents and consisting of players still on the team was a unit that had Harden, Powell, Coffey, Leonard and Zubac on the floor. That group outscored opponents 56-43 in 23 minutes all season. When considering small lineups (five-man units without a traditional center), the Clippers only had one group of players last season that played more than 10 minutes and did not include a traditional center: Harden, Mann, Powell, Leonard and Coffey (outscored opponents 33-26 in 14 minutes all season).

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The guaranteed starters for next season are Leonard, Harden and Zubac, three players who all signed new contracts in 2024. The other two starting spots are open to competition.

I expect Derrick Jones Jr. to be one of the starters after the forward signed a three-year deal with the Clippers to leave the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks. That would leave the last spot open between Powell and Mann. The Clippers have won only three of Powell’s 13 starts since he was acquired from the Portland Trail Blazers in February 2022, and that does not include a 0-3 mark from the 2023 postseason.

Mann is entering a contract year after a season in which he started 71 games and balanced a role that had him extremely off the ball offensively and in a head-of-snake role defensively in which he rarely succeeded. Jones should be in position to handle Mann’s responsibilities from a year ago on both ends, and at least defensively, Jones should be better-suited to be effective there. If Mann can show he can handle more responsibility offensively while guarding bigger players who are not as likely to be involved in pick-and-rolls, it would allow the Clippers to keep Powell in a super sub role.

Just as Jones replaces George, Kris Dunn was acquired to take Westbrook’s vacated backup point guard position. Nicolas Batum returns to the roster after being included in the Harden trade with the Sixers last October; Batum likely siphons the backup forward minutes Coffey had last year. Mo Bamba was signed to a one-year minimum to lead the competition for minutes at center behind Zubac.

How could a nine-man rotation shake out?

• Leonard (34 minutes per game)
• Harden (34 minutes)
• Zubac (28 minutes)
• Jones (27 minutes)
• Mann (27 minutes)
• Powell (27 minutes)
• Batum (24 minutes)
• Dunn (22 minutes)
• Bamba (17 minutes)

Those averages shake out to 240 minutes, and the top five returning Clippers would all be asked to do more in those minutes. No team had more isolation possessions per game (including those with passes) than the Clippers last season, per Synergy. Harden (3.9) and Leonard (3.7) were 10th and 11th among all players in isolation possessions per game, and among 46 players with at least two isolation possessions per game, Leonard ranked first in points per possession (1.20) and Harden ranked second (1.13). Leonard especially should expect more opportunities to cook.

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Harden will need to run more pick-and-rolls, not only to score, but to involve players such as Zubac and Bamba. The Clippers were in the bottom 10 in pick-and-rolls per game last season and dead last in passes per game. Harden averaged only 5.3 possessions per game as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, which ranked 44th in the league. Harden averaged 0.95 points per possession in pick-and-rolls, the same figure as All-Stars Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum, who all had more pick-and-roll possessions than Harden.

While Harden had a 58.5 percent mark in on-ball feature play types and Leonard checked in at 43.1 percent, Powell was only at 17.7 percent, Zubac was at 13.4 percent (all post-ups) and Mann at 5.4 percent. Jones did not attempt a single shot in the playoffs as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, in isolations or on post-ups. Expect Powell (isolations), Zubac (post-ups) and Mann (ball screens) to all get chances to touch the ball much more than last year. The Clippers will need the increased production.

This is a Clippers team led by Leonard and Harden now. Leonard is about as safe a bet to miss 20 games as any star in the league, while Harden is 35 years old and will be the fourth-oldest starting point guard in the league (Chris Paul, Mike Conley, Stephen Curry).

Where does this leave the others on standard contracts?

In short, they all need to stay ready.

• Coffey is a rotation incumbent who likely needs to hold off every player trying to beat him out for minutes, but he is a known commodity who could be in the rotation whenever Leonard is out.
• Kobe Brown could have a chance to be the big-bodied power forward many feel the Clippers need, but he could also get a chance to be a small-ball five, as Bamba is unlikely to have a firm grip on that role.
• Bones Hyland is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and despite his willingness to get moved, he likely enters the season as the third point guard and a necessary insurance option if Harden misses time.
• P.J. Tucker picked up his player option and, like Hyland, is still on the roster despite indicating he would welcome a trade. His $11.5 million contract could help facilitate a trade this winter, but he could be Batum insurance in the meantime.
• Kevin Porter Jr. did not play last season and could face league discipline to begin this season. He could figure into a role that could allow him to give the Clippers a Harden-like on-ball presence and also provide insurance for Powell.
• Cam Christie is a rookie who will play most of his games with the G League’s San Diego Clippers, but he is a shooter drafted by a team that attempted the fewest catch-and-shoot 3s in the NBA last season.