MLB trends: Padres reverse course, Guardians' bullpen saves the day and Yusei Kikuchi's post-trade pitch mix

The September stretch run is almost here

By Mike Axisa Aug 21, 2024 at 9:15 am ET• 6 min read

The dog days of summer have arrived. Teams made their moves at the July 30 trade deadline and now the postseason races (and awards races) are heating up. Less than six weeks remain in the regular season. With that in mind, here now are three MLB trends worth knowing as we enter the stretch run.

The anti-2023 Padres

Jurickson Profar SD • LF • #10 BA0.290R74HR20RBI76SB7 View Profile

Last year's Padres were maybe the biggest disappointment in baseball. Expected to contend for a World Series title, they instead went 82-80, and needed a big September (20-7) to get to 82 wins. They were done in by their performance in close games: 9-23 in one-run games and 2-12 in extra innings. Coin flips games that could have gone either way with the right bounce.

This year's Padres are solidly in wild-card position and within shouting distance of the Dodgers for the NL West title. They've won 22 of their last 27 games and outscored their opponents 159-90 in those 27 games. San Diego has been the best and most dominant team in baseball the last month or so. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at a healthy 96.3%.

The 2024 Padres are the anti-2023 Padres when it comes to close games and clutch situations. They're winning one run games, they're coming out ahead in extra innings, and they're performing better in high leverage spots. Here are the numbers: