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NFL Week 3 best bets & player props: Commanders bring it vs. Bengals, Ravens rally vs. Cowboys
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NFL Week 3 best bets & player props: Commanders bring it vs. Bengals, Ravens rally vs. Cowboys
With another wild week of NFL action in the books, it's already time to look ahead to the best bets of Week 3. The Sporting News has all the top moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, and player props for this weekend's action-packed slate.
MORE: Week 3 odds, lines | NFL contenders and pretenders
After two weeks, our best bets have gone 11-10-2, hovering just over .500. But we "trust the process" as we hold our heads up high and embark upon the new week. Just like Black Jack, if we stay consistent and follow the trends, good results will win out more and more as time goes by.
Let's go right back to the drawing board, and attack the top value wagers on the Week 3 odds boards. Here's the best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Against the spread (ATS)
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Commanders +7.5 at Bengals (-105 on BetMGM)
Maybe the sportsbooks didn't catch Washington's win over the Giants in Week 2, because giving 7.5 points to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders against an 0-2 team sounds like more risky business than Tom Cruise in Ray-Bans.
Washington has an identity now, powered by the coaching quartet of Dan Quinn (HC), Kliff Kingsbury (OC), Joe Whitt Jr. (DC), and Larry Izzo (special teams). They also have about an insanely stout rushing game, with Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler combining for 215 rushing yards on Sunday.
The Bengals, meanwhile, have surrendered 159.5 rushing yards per game through two weeks. They also can't seem to avoid pressure from opposing pass-rushes, already giving up six sacks and allowing Joe Burrow an average of just 2.1 seconds of pocket time before each pass attempt. Daron Payne and Dorance Armstrong will likely try to keep that trend going next Monday night.
Cincinnati misses longtime workhorse back Joe Mixon, as both Zack Moss and Chase Brown have struggled to get anything going for the Bengals. Tee Higgins missing the first two games hasn't helped, either. The home team probably ekes out its first win, but it's hard to envision it being by eight points or more.
SCORE PREDICTION: Bengals 27, Commanders 23
Other Week 3 spreads worth a look: Jets -6.5 vs. Patriots (-110 on Caesars and BetMGM); Dolphins +6 at Seahawks (-110 on BetMGM)
NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Moneyline
Ravens (-115) at Cowboys (Caesars and BetMGM)
We found this little gem of a prop just nestled amongst the 4:00 p.m. games, looking for a nice home. Well, welcome to the Week 3 best bets, little guy! The majority of America might not believe in Baltimore on the road against the Cowboys — especially after Baltimore lost at home to the Raiders — but how can anyone trust Dak Prescott and the 'Boys right now?
Dallas got trucked by the Saints 44-19 in Week 2. Alvin Kamara racked up 180 yards and four touchdowns, and the Saints managed 432 total yards (7.7 yards per play!). New Orleans converted 24 first downs and went 5-of-8 on third down. Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu and the Saints D also terrorized Dak with three sacks and two picks and held Cowboys' running backs to 57 yards.
Baltimore has an even better defense than the Saints, and the Ravens will be even hungrier than New Orleans when they roll into AT&T Stadium with a 0-2 record. John Harbaugh's squad has lost each of the past two weeks by one score with the ball and a chance to win late. In Week 1, they lost by an Isaiah Likely toe. In Week 2, they lost to Davante Adams, the king of the toe-drag swag.
Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the Ravens aren't leaving Arlington with a third loss. Have you seen Dak Prescott's record against teams that finish with winning records? Baltimore takes care of business in Week 3, and Jerry Jones starts lighting the coals around Mike McCarthy's seat in the Dallas head coach's office.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Ravens 30, Cowboys 24
Other Week 3 moneylines to consider: Titans (-140) vs. Packers (Caesars); Steelers (-130) vs. Chargers (Caesars)
NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Over/under totals
Jaguars at Bills: UNDER 46.5 (-110 on BetMGM and Caesars)
People love betting the OVER in primetime games, even though it has largely proven to be futile. Over the past five years, over 60 percent of primetime NFL games have gone UNDER (152-101-4), a massive trend that just seems to keep going unnoticed by the majority of casual bettors.
The trend should continue in Week 3 when Buffalo hosts Jacksonville, a battle of two teams that have fairly good defenses. The Bills held Miami to 10 points on Thursday Night Football (granted, Tua Tagovailoa's concussion played a part there), and had the extra couple days to rest and gear up for this home game. The Jags, meanwhile, held Miami to 20 in Week 1 (with Tua active all game) and limited Cleveland to 18 in a losing Week 2 effort.
Why are the sportsbooks suddenly expecting a barn burner? Both Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence have demonstrated time and time again that they can be mistake-prone in big games and/or primetime clashes. Both squads are also getting to know their new-look offensive personnel, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out of Buffalo (the latter is now a Jag), and Calvin Ridley gone from Jacksonville. Oh, and Jags tight end Evan Engram got hurt in Week 2.
The Jaguars have been one of the better teams at stopping the run, allowing just 103 ground yards per game. That means that Allen won't be able to rely as much on James Cook dominating as he did against Miami last Thursday. Similarly, Buffalo has been a top-12 passing defense through two weeks (179 yards per game), so TLaw could have some trouble moving the chains. Smash the UNDER.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 24, Jaguars 20
Other strong Week 3 over/under bets: Bears at Colts: OVER 42.5 (-110 on BetMGM); Patriots (at Jets) OVER 15.5 team total points (-110, shop around for latest odds)
NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Best player prop
NOTE: Player prop picks will be updated as soon as the sportsbooks post them, likely Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
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